What Would Trump's Return to the US Presidency Mean for the Balkans?
For those Balkan countries torn apart by war in the 1990s, where America is regarded as both saviour and guardian, the prospect of a Trump White House is a dark and dangerous one, argues Rigels Lenja.
Richard Holbrooke, the American diplomat who brokered the deal that ended the Bosnian war, claimed in his memoirs that the peace and prosperity of the Balkans would largely rely on American intervention. Whether America will choose continued engagement or disengagement in the region will be decided in November 2024 at the US Presidential election.
Donald Trump does not see the region as one of his foreign policy priorities. Instead, he has shown only business interests. It has emerged that Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner was behind major investments in Serbia and Albania. It's a well-known, often controversial, practice among some American politicians and diplomats to step into business contracts in the region, but primarily after leaving office. In Trump's case, the business deals started even before he clinched the Republican nomination.
An American withdrawal from Europe and the Balkans could create a fragile Europe that would be a vacuum which an un-democratic revisionist force could rush to fill.
More than One Frozen Conflict
The region is still suffering from unresolved historic disputes. One of them is an ongoing conflict between North Macedonia and Greece in regard to the country's name, which was resolved in 2018 with the Prespa Agreement, but is apparently being ignored by the new political leadership in Skopje. Skopje also has an open dispute with Bulgaria. The risk of open conflict between Athens, Sofia and Skopje is apparently nonexistent, but Russia and other malign players may exploit this vulnerability to meddle.
Nowhere is the Trump desire to withdraw from Europe more dangerous than to Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.
In Bosnia-Herzegovina, which saw a devastating war until 1995, that ended after the US bombing of the Bosnian Serbs, ethnic nationalism had been on the rise, fostered in particular by the Serbian leader Milorad Dodik, who openly supports Putin's war in Ukraine and has publicly called for the disintegration of Bosnia-Herzegovina as a single state.
It was the US-led NATO mission that deployed 60,000 soldiers in 1995 to reunify Bosnia-Herzegovina , bring peace, reconstruct the state and to arrest major war criminals such as Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladic. Kosovo is not even recognized as a state and has no chance of joining NATO or the EU in the near future, therefore the withdrawal of the US army could turn the 24 years frozen conflict into an all-out conflict.
Will America Remain a Reliable Partner for the Balkans?
Over the past 25 years, the primary cause of the existence of the peaceful and democratic Balkans was the security guarantee offered by NATO membership and the economic and financial stability provided by EU membership. NATO provided the necessary assurance that would discourage any revisionist force. Trump's public claims of Russia being free to do whatever it wants with some NATO Eastern European countries and his VP nominee JD Vance, who is one of NATO's most vocal critics, are likely to undermine the NATO alliance.
The second pillar for building a healthy democracy and a functioning capitalist economy is membership of the EU, which several Balkan countries, including Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Greece and Romania have, while the rest have candidate country status or are at the start of their application process. Under the watch of Brussels, Balkan political elites have managed to build up at least a minimal level of democratic and liberal standards. However, the rise of the far-right movement in Germany, France and the Netherlands will oblige the political establishment in these countries to concentrate more on internal political issues and pay less attention to Balkan affairs. Although Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam or Brussels will remain governed by pro-European parties, the rise of the far right will distract the political debate from further integration or enlargement.
The biggest wrinkle of Trump's potential return to the Presidency is the model he inspires. Although many leaders in the Balkans do not need to look beyond their nose to embrace harsh nationalist, revisionist language, the current international political landscape has compelled most Balkan leaders to at least publicly champion reform and democratization. A populist leader in the White House and the rise of the far-right populist movements in the largest EU member states is likely to prompt Balkan leaders to drop the reformist façade.
How did Trump's past handling of the region play out? During his first term, Richard Grenell was the administration's point man for the Balkans, and would likely play an important role in foreign policy issues in a second Trump term. Grenell's most important achievement was his widely publicized proposition of a land swap between Serbia and Kosovo. The land swap plan was overturned by then German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron. Whilst Merkel has left office, the current German Chancellor and Macron are in probably the most vulnerable political position ever, facing enormous challenges from the rise of far-right movements to a staggering economy.
USA, Ukraine and the Balkans
Ukraine is the only Eastern European country in which Trump has indicated an interest, although he has failed to share any concrete idea beyond the pledge that he would fix the conflict within the first 24 hours of his term, interpreted by many analysts as compelling Ukraine to hand over territories that Russia had occupied since the beginning of the war in 2022. An idea publicly endorsed by his Vice-Presidential running-mate, JD Vance, for whom cutting aid to Ukraine was the primary foreign policy stance, and who also refused to join a bipartisan senators meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the 2023 Munich Security Conference.
Although there is no risk of Russia launching a war in the Balkans, a victory for Russia in Ukraine could have far-reaching implications, being a major blow to the Western international order, and would encourage other revisionist forces in the region, such as Serbia, which has long regarded the predominantly Serb-inhabited north of Kosovo as a legitimate target. This could quickly be followed by the secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina of Republika Srpska, the majority-Serb territory and one of the two entities of that state, either to join Serbia or proclaim its independence, thus automatically bringing Bosnia-Herzegovina to the end. In North Macedonia, the delicate agreement of 2001, which envisaged equal rights for all minority groups could deteriorate. Although the possibility of an open war as in 1990 is highly unlikely, Trump's isolationism would likely cause a further erosion of democracy in the region.
The US involvement in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and North Macedonia was mainly of a military nature, leaving the European states to take a crucial role in creating a well-functioning democracy beneath the US security umbrella. If the US were to be in imminent peril of withdrawing its military force from the region as part of Trump's potential foreign policy – “Europe is not my concern” he has said – European states would be unable to quickly compensate for the US military involvement in their backyard.
A US withdrawal from the region will have a significant implication in transforming the frozen conflict into a hot one. An end to NATO, followed by decreased interest from the EU due to the rise of the far right, who are hostile to EU enlargement, can potentially create a void in the Balkans which could be capitalized on by anti-democratic forces with a nationalist, revisionist agenda that could plunge the region back into troubled times.
Dr. des. Rigels Lenja is a journalist, columnist and historian. He holds a BA/MSc degree in East and Southeast European Modern History from the University of Tirana. In April 2024, he defended his PhD thesis at the University of Munich’s Institute for East and South-East Europe. His research has focused on dictatorship, modern warfare, democracy and modern religion in the Balkan countries.