Trump's Venezuela Invasion Has 'Opened Pandora's Box'
Could Greenland be the next target for the US President?
“A throwback to 19th Century colonialism”- that’s how US politics expert Scott Lucas describes Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela and the abduction of its President Nicholas Maduro, who now faces drugs-trafficking charges in New York.
Lucas – Professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin – said allegations of ‘narco-terrorism’ against Maduro, perpetuated by the Trump administration, don’t withstand close scrutiny.
“We actually know from people that track these things that 90% of the drugs that move through Venezuela go to Europe,” Lucas told the Byline podcast.
“We also know that Venezuela is not a leading producer of illegal narcotics. That’s Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. This was done for other reasons.”
The most important of the ‘other reasons’ identified by Lucas is oil.
Venezuela is reported to have the largest oil reserves in the world, but is currently subject to a US sanctions regime that has crippled the economy.
Drawing on Trump’s press conference in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, Prof. Lucas observed: “First of all [he said] ‘the US will run Venezuela’ - not ‘we will help Venezuelans get their government back’, not ‘we will help Venezuelans rebuild their economy.’
“So [he’s saying] ‘we will run Venezuela; and two, we will take the oil and we will use the money from the oil the way that we want.”
The removal of Maduro is the latest in a long line of US Interventions in Latin America – a region it regards as its own “backyard”. Trump even referenced the ‘Monroe Doctrine’ which sought to remove European influence from the Western Hemisphere and which has guided US foreign policy from the 19th Century onwards. He dubbed his own updated version the ‘Don-Roe Doctrine’.
In the 20th century, Nicaragua, Chile, Guatemala, Panama and Cuba were all targeted by Washington with varying degrees of success, but with the same underlying desire to control the politics – and usually the resources – of its continental neighbours.
In that context, the invasion of Venezuela hardly sets a new precedent, but Lucas fears the ease with which it was accomplished could embolden Trump to target other territories which the US has designated as vital to its national security, such as Greenland, even though the territory is governed by Denmark, a NATO ally.
In a recently published interview with The Atlantic, the US President proclaimed: “We do need Greenland, absolutely”, because it’s “surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships.”
Following the assault on Venezuela, Katie Miller, wife of White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, posted an image on social media of Greenland covered in star and stripes with the caption ‘SOON’. The President later reiterated his desire to take control of the region.
Lucas fears that even Canada isn’t safe: “The Trump administration has threatened Canada repeatedly. Now I’m not saying that special forces are going to go in and kidnap Prime Minister Mark Carney tomorrow, but they have been putting pressure on the Canadians with tariffs, with other economic measures, and with threats.
“What does Canada have a lot of? It’s got a huge amount of oil.”
Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK Government will “shed no tears” for the repressive Maduro, who came to power after disputed elections in 2013, but Lucas warns that the PM, as a former Director of Public Prosecutions, should understand that “hard cases make bad law.”
He warns that the absence of both UN approval and Congressional backing for the invasion will weaken the United States authority if other powers – notably China and Russia – decide to act unilaterally in their backyard. Russia has already launched a full-scale of Ukraine, of course, but Lucas fears worse could now follow.
“I think they have opened the Pandora’s box,” he said.
“What’s to stop the Chinese from saying, ‘the President of Taiwan has called for independence. That’s a violation of our laws, that’s a rebellion against us.’
“We’re going to go in. We’re going to lift the president of Taiwan. What are you going to do about it?’”
Listen to Adrian Goldberg’s full interview with Scott Lucas here