The View from Pennsylvania
With polls in the battleground state closer than ever, Philadelphia resident Matt Bernardini asks whether the Democrats are now heading for disaster
The sole benefit to living in Philadelphia during America’s asinine electoral process, where the number and selection of states won is more important than the popular vote, is that all eyes are on Pennsylvania. Both candidates flock to the Keystone state to visit Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as the in-between rural areas. And with the state’s 19 electoral votes, and diverse voting bloc, many analysts feel that Pennsylvania could decide the 2024 election.
While the state has only been won once by Republicans since 1992, it’s become a battleground state over the last eight years. Trump surprisingly beat Hilary Clinton by less than one percentage point in 2016, clinching his unexpected victory. And while President Joe Biden won the state back in 2020, the outcome was still closer than in years past and it took several days before all the votes were tallied in Philadelphia for Biden to be declared the winner.
This time around experts are having a tough time figuring out what to expect on election day.
“We don't have much precedent for a one-term incumbent who's been defeated for reelection who is running again,” Berwood Yost, a pollster at Franklin & Marshall College, told Spotlight PA. “I just don't know who has the advantage.”
Anecdotally, there are certainly fewer Trump signs in many areas than there were in 2016 and not as many people are as disillusioned as they were during the Clinton campaign. Voting registration groups have been active across Philadelphia for much of October along with signs saying “defend democracy” plastered across the city. The goal is to turn out enough voters in the state’s largest city, to offset the Republican voters in the rural areas.
Unfortunately, there are worrying signs for Democrats. After Biden won the state back in 2020, Democrats boasted a 630,000 registration edge over Republicans in Pennsylvania. Now, that advantage has been cut down to 300,000. While some of these voters are likely to have been registered as Democrats who have been voting Republican recently, the GOP has made a big push to register new voters across the state.
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