High Stakes and Critical Crossroads: Mexico's Defining Election

Homar, a Mexican journalist in London, reports on a nation at a turning point

Presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez speaks before the final presidential debate, 19 May, ahead the Mexico's elections on 2 June 2024. Photo: Carlos Tischler/Sipa US/Alamy

The countdown is on for Mexico’s largest election on 2 June. The country will elect a new President to serve a six-year term, as well as all 628 seats in Congress, nine Governors, and 19,000 municipal roles. Nearly 100 million Mexican citizens – around 75% of the country’s population – will head to the polls in what many consider Mexico’s most critical election yet.

This election is likely to see Mexico elect its first-ever woman president, a historic milestone in a nation struggling with gender inequality and rising violence against women and girls. The race has been far from smooth, marked by unexpected coalitions, unprecedented voter registration issues, and harrowing figures of at least 200 candidates being threatened, kidnapped or murdered.

Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate for the ruling party Morena, is reportedly leading the race. Sheinbaum, the former Head of Government of Mexico City, has pledged to continue the reforms initiated by current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO. Elected in 2018 after the third time running for office, AMLO began his presidential term vowing to put Mexico through the country’s Fourth Transformation, or Cuarta Transformación (4T). AMLO’s description of the 4T equated his political momentum to something as colossal as Mexico’s Independence, known as the country’s First Transformation. 

Presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum at the final presidential debate on 19 May, before Mexico's presidential elections on 2 June 2024. Photo: Luis Barron/ZUMA Press/Alamy

Throughout his six-year term, dissatisfaction with AMLO’s policies drove historically rival parties to unite against Morena. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN), and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) joined forces to form the Strength and Heart for Mexico coalition (Fuerza y Corazón por México), backing Senator Xóchitl Gálvez as their candidate. Gálvez, a businesswoman of indigenous descent, promised that “unlike the current president”, she vows to “fight organized crime, preserve the rule of law, uphold democratic norms and protect and help law-abiding citizens”.