Half a Million Russian Combat Losses - When Will Russians Rebel?

Paul Niland looks at the devastating scale of Russian losses in Ukraine and what can be done to bring about an end to the war

Advertising billboards showing Russian soldiers, the ‘Pride of Russia’, to encourage recruitment for the war in Ukraine, in St Petersburg, Russia, 16 May 2024. Photo:Dmitri Lovetsky/Associated Press/Alamy

In the days following Putin’s decision to wage all-out war against Ukraine, in a rage at what was happening in and to my adopted country, I wrote an article for Byline Times making two predictions. The first was that the scale of Russian losses from this war would be enormous, and the second was that the number of bodies being returned to Russia in coffins would be the catalyst for protests inside Russia that would finally lead to a movement that would end the Putin regime.

I don’t mind admitting when I am wrong. I failed to appreciate the tolerance among Russian society for the losses of their husbands and sons. The second part of my thesis has, so far, failed to materialise. But the first element of what I wrote, well, nobody could have dreamt that we would reach the scale of losses that we have now witnessed. Russian combat losses in this insane war have topped a half a million.

Five hundred thousand Russians have either been killed or wounded to the point that they are eliminated from the fight permanently. And here’s another remarkable thing about that number, the WIA/KIA ratio is something like 1:1. To put both of those statistics into comparison, the total number of killed and wounded coalition troops in the 8-year-long Iraq war were 4,500 and 32,000 respectively. Less than 10% of the losses that Russia has taken, and with a WIA/KIA ratio of 7:1. No army in the world has taken such attrition since World War Two. And yet, Putin and his lackies continue to say that the war will continue until the goals of the “special military operation” are fulfilled.