Did India and Pakistan Just Pull Back from the Brink of a Nuclear War?
After a day of escalating attacks and a US-brokered ceasefire, BJ Sadiq reports from Islamabad on the fast-moving developments in the conflict between nuclear neighbours
In the early hours of Wednesday, as many as four missiles struck a mosque in Muridke, a crowded hamlet of decrepit architecture, 25 miles outside Lahore – the capital of Punjab in Pakistan. Pandemonium broke out, as a large crowd gathered at the site. The blast left a mighty crater in the mosque’s ceiling; windows were shattered; and the floor seemed to have been drowned by the scatter of debris. Three civilians were reportedly killed.
The same night, on the edge of Bahawalpur, a city in Southern Punjab, another mosque was hit by an Indian missile; killing 13 people, which included two three-year-old girls. In the streets of Pakistan all talk was of war.
In Narowal, another border city, Indian forces rained down mortar shells on civilian areas. A government dispensary sustained partial damage, while mortar shells and drone munitions fell in surrounding fields but failed to detonate. Fog obscured the streets. More cities came under attack, as the death toll rose to 26, with nearly 50 others badly wounded. Pakistanis were charged with emotion, confirmed by the slow diminuendos of the Quran recited in the same, missile-battered mosque at dawn.
Indian media however, claimed that its military had only attacked terrorist hideouts in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. According to the Indian media; the targeted sites were considered as strongholds of terrorist organizations such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Local villagers who prayed in that mosque mocked such accusations.
In a straight-faced response to a British journalist in London, Vikram Doraiswami, India’s High Commissioner to the UK said that India did not target Pakistan’s national infrastructure, nor did they target the military establishment, but the message from Pakistan’s military is loud and clear. ‘When Pakistan strikes, it will be unmistakable and undeniable. You won’t need the media to explain — the impact will speak for itself,’ said Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif, the military’s chief spokesperson while talking to the global press.
Indian politician and writer Shashi Tharoor echoed India’s lack of intention in escalating this situation into a full-scale war. “Our response was strictly calibrated and we struck Pakistan late at night so as to avoid killing civilians, but Pakistan is overreacting,” cut Tharoor, visibly supporting Modi’s aggression against Pakistan. An author of his prominence downplaying the death of three-year-old children was disheartening.
The Indian Government named this belligerent attack on Pakistan “Operation Sindoor” – ‘sindoor’ accurately translates to ‘vermillion’ in English. A few hours later, Indian fighter jets launched an aerial assault on Pakistan-administered Kashmir; but Pakistan’s military retaliated and shot down five of them, including three state-of-the-art French made Rafale warplanes.
Various media outlets confirmed that Pakistan used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft in what was an intense dogfight against Indian fighter jets. Rafale manufacturer Dassault Aviation declined to comment.
The news came as a shock both to the US and a number of European countries, as they were able to get a practical insight into the workings of Chinese military capabilities. The stocks of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the manufacturer of the J-10 aircraft rose by 20%. Until now, Chinese weaponry had not been field-tested against Western manufactured war systems such as the Rafale. The Indian Air Force (IAF) operates a fleet of 36 Rafale F3Rs, widely considered as the most advanced model of the aircraft.
Hu Jixin, the former editor of the Chinese state-owned Global Times, said the skirmish with the illustrious Rafales showed that “China’s level of military manufacturing has completely outclassed that of Russia and France”. China has its own border feud with India; sharing a 2400-mile Himalayan border with it, which has been disputed since the 1950s, and even led to a brief war in 1962.
A day later, Pakistan shot down 25 low-flying drones that had violated its airspace. On close examination, it was confirmed that the drones were made in Israel. One of them struck a military facility in Lahore, injuring four Pakistani soldiers; while another fell right outside the Rawalpindi cricket stadium, an international cricket venue, which has recently been hosting the PSL (Pakistan Super League). The Indian authorities defended their decision to launch a drone raid into major Pakistani cities, calling the act a response to a Pakistani missile attack on 15 targets in India. Islamabad has unequivocally denied these claims, saying that they are nothing but “theatrics”.
This sudden upsurge in tensions between the two countries, both armed with nuclear capabilities, is a product of the insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir more than two weeks ago. On 22 April, in the district of Pahalgam, a band of armed men opened fire on visiting tourists killing 26 people and injuring more than a dozen others. The Indian security agencies were quick to conclude that the attack was linked to Pakistan. Pakistan denied involvement, and offered independent investigation, but India remained elusive.
Omar Abdullah, Kashmir's Chief Minister, wrote on his social media: “This attack is much larger than anything we’ve seen directed at civilians in recent years.”
A furious Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, vowed to teach Pakistan a lesson. The Indian Government soon announced a slew of punitive measures against Islamabad, including the suspension of the critical Indus Waters Treaty, the cancellation of visas and the downgrading of diplomatic ties. India also shut down its main border crossing with Pakistan and ordered Pakistanis on certain visas to leave within two days.
The blockage of the Indus waters sparked discontentment among Pakistan’s authorities, who looked upon such a move as an “act of war”. Pakistan, in addition to calling India’s accusations politically motivated, declared the closure of its airspace to Indian flights.
Over the last two days, fake media reports were coming from Modi-sponsored Indian TV networks, claiming that India has invaded major cities in Pakistan, including the capital Islamabad, where I am currently writing this piece from my home. I invalidate all such information fed to the Indian public as propagandist and political garbage.
One of the most highly regarded military commentators in India, Pravin Sawhney, while talking to former BBC journalist Karan Thapar, conceded the misinformation being spread by several Indian media outlets, misleading the public, and creating more panic.
More horror ensued in the early hours of Saturday morning, as India fired six surface-to-air missiles aimed at three of Pakistan’s most strategically important military bases. Air space was immediately closed down; and sirens played across the country. Pakistan’s military spokesperson held an emergency press conference, confirming the news and warning India of a major retaliation.
A few hours later, at the break of day, Pakistan launched “Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos”, a phrase from the Quran roughly translated to “wall of lead”. According to the military, seven sites in India were targeted, including vital airbases of Pathankot and Udhampur, and large storage depots in Uri and Beas.
Things were not looking good. Local analysts believed that China was keenly observing the escalation and was likely to have a meeting with officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan in Kabul on Saturday. Western mediation was not as forthcoming as it had been in all of the previous wars between these two states. But around 5pm local time on Saturday evening, US President Donald Trump, confirmed on his official X account that both Pakistan and India had agreed to a ceasefire.
The local media in Pakistan remains sceptical of the duration of such a decision as they look upon Modi’s decision to withdraw as temporary. CNN International Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson revealed that it was Modi who rushed to the US to bring about a ceasefire.
Soon after both parties agreed to a truce, Indian media started reporting blasts in Srinagar city, the capital of the Indian-administered Kashmir. However, Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar treated these reports by the Modi-backed electronic media as totally baseless. “Modi will now do all in his power to gain political mileage because the war he wanted to wage on Pakistan has failed”, said an anonymous source close the Pakistan army.
It now remains to be seen how outstanding diplomatic issues such as the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty are dealt with.
Together, both countries are home to nearly a 1.7 billion people. A prolonged conflict can potentially hurt the supply of goods, electricity, transport, export orders, routine municipal operations and the general livelihood of people. Modi might win, but his people will lose.
B.J.Sadiq is a British Pakistani writer, journalist and English poet. He tweets @sadiqauthor